Global High- and Mid-Rise Residential Real Estate Outlook
Executive Summary
The global high- and mid-rise residential real estate market is evolving rapidly across nine key regions: Canada, USA, UK, UAE, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Singapore.
While global headwinds such as inflation and high interest rates affect all markets, local fundamentals, policies, and demographics are driving highly divergent outcomes.
A major theme is the supply-demand paradox: luxury and high-end housing continues to thrive, while affordable mid-market housing remains scarce. This is widening the gap between property values and average incomes worldwide.
Global Market Dynamics
Economic Pressures
- High interest rates are cooling sales and delaying projects.
- In the USA, homeowners locked into low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell, freezing inventory.
- In Canada, condo prices have dropped 5.4% year-on-year, with developers slowing new projects.
Demographic Shifts
- Canada: immigration and urban growth sustain demand.
- Japan: aging population drives rural decline, but Tokyo remains resilient.
- South Korea: single-person households fuel urban apartment demand despite population decline.
- Singapore: younger buyers are entering the market earlier, reshaping private demand.
The Supply-Demand Paradox
- Vietnam: affordable projects have vanished; only luxury dominates.
- UK: affordable housing shortages persist despite ambitious targets.
- Singapore: cooling measures maintain stability, but supply remains tight.
Government Intervention
- Singapore: cooling measures like ABSD and loan caps keep prices stable.
- South Korea: government plans 1.35 million new homes in Seoul by 2030.
- Vietnam: new laws improve transparency and investor confidence.
- UK: targets fall short, leaving structural undersupply unresolved.
Regional Highlights
Canada
- Prices correcting, with condos down 5.4% year-on-year.
- Units are shrinking in size due to higher costs.
- Investor-driven demand is stalling, slowing pre-construction pipelines.
USA
- National median home price: $442,992.
- Huge regional differences, with Manhattan averaging $3 million.
- Builders are slowing, but urban rental markets like San Francisco are rebounding.
UK
- London luxury prices exceed £10,000 per sq. meter.
- Unit sizes shrinking, some below national minimum standards.
- Housing completions remain well below government targets.
UAE
- Dubai property prices rose 16.1% year-on-year.
- Off-plan pipeline strong, with 2,134 projects in development.
- Market thrives on global capital and high-net-worth buyers.
Hong Kong
- Average home price: US$1,800 per sq. foot.
- “Nano-flats” now restricted to minimum 280 sq. ft. by new rules.
- Government struggles to balance affordability with fiscal reliance on property.
South Korea
- Seoul apartments surpassed $15,100 per sq. meter.
- State-driven plan to supply 1.35 million homes by 2030.
- Rising single-person households sustain urban demand.
Japan
- Tokyo prices exceed $9,000 per sq. meter in central wards.
- Rural decline continues due to depopulation.
- Rebuild-and-renew strategy keeps cities resilient.
Vietnam
- Luxury dominates; mid-market supply has vanished.
- Prices in Hanoi hit $3,230 per sq. meter in 2025.
- New housing laws boost investor confidence, but affordability lags.
Singapore
- Condo average: $1,989,082, with public HDB flats at $612,497.
- Cooling measures keep growth steady at 1–2% for 2025.
- Younger buyers driving new private home demand.
Strategic Insights
- High-Risk, High-Reward: UAE, Vietnam (growth potential but volatile).
- Stable Growth: Singapore, Japan (predictable, policy-driven).
- Transitional: Canada, USA (correction phase, localized opportunities).
Government policy remains the single most decisive factor in shaping outcomes.
Conclusion
The global high- and mid-rise residential real estate market is no longer one story—it’s a collection of diverse, region-specific narratives. Investors must adopt a granular, local approach, weighing demographics, policy frameworks, and supply-demand dynamics.
The future belongs to markets that balance affordability, regulation, and growth potential—with Singapore, Japan, and South Korea emerging as models of long-term resilience.
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