New Launch Performance Q1 2026: Which Projects Hit 90% Sales in 30 Days
New launch sell-through rates in Q1 2026 have separated winners from also-rans with unusual clarity. The market is not rising uniformly — it is rewarding specific project profiles while punishing mispriced or poorly-located launches with brutal efficiency.
The 90% Club: Who Made It
Three projects achieved 90%+ sales within 30 days of launch in Q1 2026, each sharing a common profile: MRT adjacency within 400 metres, pricing at or below GLS land-cost-implied fair value, and launch quantum between S$1.2M and S$1.8M for the median unit.
Norwood Grand (Woodlands) led the pack with 84% sold on launch day and 93% within a month at an average S$2,067 psf — a meaningful discount to CCR product that caught HDB upgrader attention. Emerald of Katong similarly crossed 90% within 23 days, benefiting from the District 15 emotional appeal even as Meyer Road's secondary market underperforms. Bagnall Haus in Upper East Coast hit 91% in 28 days, anchored by freehold tenure and school-belt positioning.
• Norwood Grand: 93% sold in 30 days @ S$2,067 psf avg
• Emerald of Katong: 91% sold in 23 days @ S$2,350 psf avg
• Bagnall Haus: 91% sold in 28 days @ S$2,110 psf avg
• Projects below 50% sold in 30 days: 4 launches
• SORA 3-month: 1.22% (supports borrower confidence)
• GLS benchmark psf ppr vs new launch pricing correlation: 78%
The Projects That Struggled
Four launches in Q1 failed to cross 50% sold within 30 days. The common threads: quantum pressure (median unit above S$2.2M in OCR or S$2.8M in RCR), no MRT within 600 metres, and launch pricing at a premium to nearby resale comparables. In a SORA environment where monthly mortgage commitments remain elevated even at 1.22%, buyers are acutely quantum-sensitive.
What Q2 Launches Must Do
The formula for Q2 success is now reasonably clear: price at a maximum 8–10% premium to resale PSF benchmarks, anchor marketing to HDB upgrader profiles with sub-S$1.5M entry units, and launch within 6 months of TOP to reduce holding period anxiety. Developers who stretched pricing in Q1 are offering silent discounts — a sign that the strong-launch headline numbers do not tell the full story. Watch absorption in months 2–6 for the real performance picture.
